PermaRICH: Advanced Mapping and Monitoring for Assessing Permafrost Thawing Risks for Modern Infrastructure and Cultural Heritage in Svalbard

PermaRich is a three-years collaborative project funded by the Fram Centre, bringing together five complementary member institutions of the Flagship: NORCE, SINTEF, NIKU, NGU and UNIS.

The project aims to assess the risks related to terrain movement in inhabited permafrost landscapes and the deformation of modern infrastructure (MI) and cultural heritage (CH) sites in and around Longyearbyen and Ny-Ålesund (Central and Western Svalbard).

We propose an innovative integration of advanced satellite remote sensing technology and traditional methods to map, monitor and model ground disturbances from permafrost thawing and their consequences on ground stability. The final goal is to evaluate the risks for future MI and CH damage and suggest adaptation measures to key stakeholders in Longyearbyen and Ny-Ålesund.

PermaRich is implemented in five work packages (WPs) with the following specific objectives:

WP1 MAP: Generate regional maps of terrain movement using spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) and exploit the results to improve and upscale existing geomorphological and quaternary geology maps. Identify the processes controlling the ground movement and combine InSAR products and geoscientific interpretation to rate the geohazard susceptibility at the landscape scale.

WP2 MONITOR: Monitor the deformation of selected MI and CH sites based on an integration of InSAR and in-situ geodetic displacement time series. Understand the local controls of the movement by comparing the results with site-specific (existing and newly acquired) datasets documenting the ground thermal regime and the ground stratigraphy (sediment type and ice content).

WP3 MODEL: Model the foundation stability of selected structures based on current observations and differential settlement rates likely to occur in the future using downscaled climate projections. Categorize the expected impacts of climate change on different MI and CH types and generalize the modelled results to assess the structural performance of the inventoried objects in the study areas.

WP4 INTEGRATE: Integrate the regional and local observations. Combine the geohazard susceptibility and the generalized structural performance scores for the MI and CH sites in Longyearbyen and Ny-Ålesund. Provide qualitative risk estimates for the inventoried objects and suggest risk adaptation measures to the stakeholders.

WP5 COMMUNICATE: Enhance the communication between researchers and key stakeholders. Document the climate change adaptation (CCA) measures and priorities of the authorities and account for user recommendations into improved mapping and monitoring strategies. Disseminate the project’s outcomes and discuss risk adaptation solutions.