Enhancing seasonal-to-decadal Prediction Of Climate for the North Atlantic Sector and Arctic (EPOCASA)
During the last decade global surface temperatures rose less rapidly than
in the preceding decades. The northern hemisphere saw a spate of harsh
winters, exemplified by the last one with extremely cold temperatures
and high snowfalls across Europe and eastern North America, and one
of the driest March in Western Norway since reliable observations started
around 1900. At the same time the Arctic experienced extreme warming
and accelerated sea ice loss, culminating in the record-low of September
2012. While anthropogenic global warming may explain much of the recent
changes, the northern hemisphere climate fluctuates strongly on timescales
of several decades.
EPOCASA aims to assess the extent to which these changes are
predictable, by developing and applying a dynamical climate prediction
system, focusing on the North Atlantic Sector and Arctic. EPOCASA is
motivated by several recent advances: the demonstration that subpolar
North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) are predictable on
seasonal-to-decadal timescales, with observed links to the Nordic Seas
and Arctic; potential role of stratosphere-troposphere interactions in the
atmospheric response to tropical and extra-tropical SST, sea ice, and
snow cover variations; as well as the need to reduce model systematic
error and develop more advanced initialisation techniques. We will analyse
observations and perform extensive model simulations to assess the
potential of these factors to enhance climate prediction in the region.
The EPOCASA prediction system couples an advanced data assimilation
method (the Ensemble Kalman Filter) to the current version of the Norwegian
Earth System Model, building upon developments initiated at the Center for
Climate Dynamics at the Bjerknes Center. It will be first seasonal-to-decadal
climate prediction capability in Norway, paving the way for operational
climate prediction that will be of direct benefit to Norwegian Society and
Economy.
Project facts
Name
Enhancing seasonal-to-decadal Prediction Of Climate for the North Atlantic Sector and Arctic (EPOCASA)
Status
CONCLUDED
Duration
01.01.14 - 31.12.17
Total budget
27.805.000 NOK
